Samuda says PNP will win next election based on latest poll

Adrian Samuda, the current councillor candidate for the country’s main opposition party for Old Harbour North Division, made this conclusion following the release of the latest Nationwide/Bluedot poll.

Writing on his personal Facebook account Samuda pointed to a finding in the report which stated that 91 percent of PNP supporters intend to vote in the next general election constitutionally due September of this year.

Based on this finding, the Bannister native said this should be a “worrying sign for the optimistic laborites”.

“At the JLP highest popularity period they could have only manage to gain 437,178 votes. 2020 was a good year for JLP in popularity and their total voter turnout reduced by 20,802 compared to 2016. PNP voter turnout dipped by 127,679 compared to 2016,” he said referencing the popular votes of the last three general elections which the PNP only won in 2011. “The 127,679 dipped in voter turnout by the PNP contributed to the landslide victory for the JLP. The 2020 landslide victory was not based on a growth in laborites but rather a decline in PNP going to the poll.”

“In concluding, if the PNP should realise a 91% voter turn of its base, the PNP will win the general election constitutionally due September 2025. Focus on the numbers, not feelings,” he added.

One respondent to Samuda’s post cautioned him against focusing on the popular vote count as this isn’t a guarantee of victory for the PNP given that the election is decided by the party that wins the most seats.

Reacting to the poster named Andre John, Samuda acknowledged that while this is a fact, the data finding is still “troubling” for the governing party.

“History is showing that PNP has a larger base and for JLP to win, the PNP base must sit out on election. But if the base is energise as it is now, JLP is in trouble. Its the historical data is proving it, not me,” said the businessman.

Among other findings published in the NNN/Bluedot report, 44 percent of Jamaicans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

The research also disclosed that 70 percent of PNP supporters stated that the country is on the wrong path. However 60 percent of JLP supporters contend that the party has placed the country on the correct trajectory and should stay the course.